Current and Projected Mortality and Hospitalization Rates Associated With Conditional Cash Transfer, Social Pension, and Primary Health Care Programs in Brazil, 2000-2030.

Importance: The health outcomes of increased poverty and inequalities in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have been substantially amplified as a consequence of converging multiple crises. Brazil has some of the world's largest conditional cash transfer (Programa Bolsa Família [PBF]), social pension (Beneficio de Prestacão Continuada [BPC]), and primary health care (Estratégia de Saúde da Família [ESF]) programs that could act as mitigating interventions during the current polycrisis era of increasing poverty, slow or contracting economic growth, and conflicts. Objective: To evaluate the combined association of the Brazilian conditional cash transfer, social pension, and primary health care programs with the reduction of morbidity and mortality over the last 2 decades and forecast their potential mitigation of the current global polycrisis and beyond. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used a longitudinal ecological design with multivariable negative binomial regression models (adjusted for relevant socioeconomic, demographic, and health care variables) integrating the retrospective analysis from 2000 to 2019, with dynamic microsimulation models to forecast potential child mortality scenarios up to 2030. Participants included a cohort of 2548 Brazilian municipalities from 2004 to 2019, projected from 2020 to 2030. Data analysis was performed from September 2022 to February 2023. Exposure: PBF coverage of the target population (those who were poorest) was categorized into 4 levels: low (0%-29.9%), intermediate (30.0%-69.9%), high (70.0%-99.9%), and consolidated (≥100%). ESF coverage was categorized as null (0), low (0.1%-29.9%), intermediate (30.0%-69.9%), and consolidated (70.0%-100%). BPC coverage was categorized by terciles. Main outcomes and measures: Age-standardized, all-cause mortality and hospitalization rates calculated for the entire population and by age group (<5 years, 5-29 years, 30-69 years, and ≥70 years). Results: Among the 2548 Brazilian municipalities studied from 2004 to 2019, the mean (SD) age-standardized mortality rate decreased by 16.64% (from 6.73 [1.14] to 5.61 [0.94] deaths per 1000 population). Consolidated coverages of social welfare programs studied were all associated with reductions in overall mortality rates (PBF: rate ratio [RR], 0.95 [95% CI, 0.94-0.96]; ESF: RR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.93-0.94]; BPC: RR, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.91-0.92]), having all together prevented an estimated 1 462 626 (95% CI, 1 332 128-1 596 924) deaths over the period 2004 to 2019. The results were higher on mortality for the group younger than age 5 years (PBF: RR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.85-0.90]; ESF: RR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.87-0.93]; BPC: RR, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.82-0.86]), on mortality for the group aged 70 years and older, and on hospitalizations. Considering a shorter scenario of economic crisis, a mitigation strategy that will increase the coverage of PBF, BPC, and ESF to proportionally cover the newly poor and at-risk individuals was projected to avert 1 305 359 (95% CI, 1 163 659-1 449 256) deaths and 6 593 224 (95% CI, 5 534 591-7 651 327) hospitalizations up to 2030, compared with fiscal austerity scenarios that would reduce the coverage of these interventions. Conclusions and relevance: This cohort study's results suggest that combined expansion of conditional cash transfers, social pensions, and primary health care should be considered a viable strategy to mitigate the adverse health outcomes of the current global polycrisis in LMICs, whereas the implementation of fiscal austerity measures could result in large numbers of preventable deaths.

Evolución clínica y nutricional de pacientes sometidos a cirugía bariátrica en un hospital de referencia del estado de Pernambuco / Evolução clínica e nutricional de pacientes submetidos à cirurgia bariátrica em um hospital de referência do estado de Pernambuco / Clinical and nutritional evolution of patients undergoing bariatric surgery in a reference hospital in the state of Pernambuco

La obesidad es un factor de riesgo para enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles como Diabetes Mellitus 2, Hipertensión Arterial Sistémica, entre otras. La gastroplastia se encuentra entre las alternativas terapéuticas con buena respuesta a la pérdida de peso cuando el ejercicio físico y la dieta no fueron eficientes, resultando en un mejor control clínico de las comorbilidades asociadas. Por tanto, analizar la evolución clínica y nutricional de pacientes sometidos a cirugía bariátrica, 12 meses después del procedimiento, con el fin de observar los impactos de esta terapia. Se realizó una serie de casos, que incluyeron individuos sometidos a cirugía bariátrica y que presentaban alguna comorbilidad asociada al exceso de peso. La recolección de datos se realizó en Instituto de Medicina Integral Prof. Fernando Figueira – IMIP, ubicado en la ciudad de Recife-Pernambuco, período de mayo de 2021 a octubre de 2021. Se obtuvieron datos antropométricos, clínicos y bioquímicos. Se incluyeron en el estudio cuarenta personas con una edad media de 43 ± 11,7 años, siendo la técnica quirúrgica más utilizada el Bypass Gástrico (77,5%). Se observó una reducción de la Hemoglobina Glicada de 5,8% ± 0,5 en el preoperatorio a 5,1% ± 0,2 a los 12 meses (p = <0,001), y una reducción del Colesterol Total de 199,0 mg/dL a 167,0 mg/dL (p = <0,001) antes y 12 meses después de la gastroplastia, respectivamente. Además de estas, observamos una mejora estadísticamente significativa en todas las variables antropométricas y bioquímicas analizadas, excepto la glucemia en ayunas. Estos resultados pueden explicarse por cambios en la secreción de hormonas intestinales, que ayudan a mejorar el control de la glucosa, los lípidos y la presión arterial, además de la pérdida de peso. Por tanto, la cirugía bariátrica parece tener un impacto positivo en la evolución bioquímica y antropométrica en el primer año tras la cirugía.(AU)

Introdução: A obesidade é fator de risco para doençascrônicas não transmissíveis como Diabetes Mellitus tipo 2,Hipertensão Arterial Sistêmica, dislipidemias, entre outras. Agastroplastia está entre as alternativas terapêuticas com boaresposta sobre a perda ponderal quando exercício físico edieta não foram eficientes, resultando em melhor controle clí-nico de comorbidades associadas. Portanto, analisar a evolu-ção clínica e nutricional de pacientes submetidos à cirurgiabariátrica em um hospital de referência no estado dePernambuco, 12 meses após o procedimento, a fim de obser-var os impactos desta terapêutica. Material e métodos: Foi realizado uma série de casos,que incluiu indivíduos submetidos à cirurgia bariátrica e quepossuíam alguma comorbidade associada ao excesso ponde-ral. A coleta de dados foi realizada no ambulatório de nutri-ção do Instituto de Medicina Integral Prof. Fernando Figueira– IMIP, localizado na cidade de Recife-Pernambuco, períodode maio de 2021 a outubro de 2021. Sendo obtidos dados an-tropométricos, clínicos e bioquímicos. Resultados: Foram incluídos no estudo 40 indivíduos comidade média de 43 ± 11,7 anos, com predominância do sexo feminino (92,5%), sendo a técnica cirúrgica mais realizada oBypass Gástrico (77,5%). Foi observado redução daHemoglobina Glicada de 5,8% ± 0,5 no pré-operatório para5,1% ± 0,2 aos 12 meses (p = <0,001), e redução doColesterol Total de 199,0mg/dL para 167,0mg/dL (p = <0,001)antes e 12 meses após a gastroplastia, respectivamente. Alémdestas, observamos melhora estatisticamente significativa emtodas as variáveis antropométricas e bioquímicas analisadas,exceto a glicemia em jejum. Discussão: Tais resultados podem ser explicados a partirdas alterações da secreção de hormônios intestinais, que au-xiliam no melhor controle glicídico, lipídico e pressórico, alémda perda ponderal...AU)

Introduction: Obesity is a risk factor for chronic non-com-municable diseases such as Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, SystemicArterial Hypertension, dyslipidemia, among others. Gastroplast is among the therapeutic alternatives with a good response toweight loss when physical exercise and diet were not efficient,resulting in better clinical control of associated comorbidities. Therefore, analyze the clinical and nutritional evolution of pa-tients undergoing bariatric surgery in a reference hospital in thestate of Pernambuco, 12 months after the procedure, in orderto observe the impacts of this therapy. Material and methods: A series of cases was carried out,which included individuals who underwent bariatric surgeryand who had some comorbidity associated with excessweight. Data collection was carried out at the nutrition out-patient clinic of the Instituto de Medicina Integral Prof.Fernando Figueira – IMIP, located in the city of Recife-Pernambuco, period from May 2021 to October 2021.Anthropometric, clinical and biochemical data were obtained. Results: 40 individuals were included in the study with amean age of 43 ± 11.7 years, with a predominance of fema-les (92.5%), with the most common surgical technique beingGastric Bypass (77.5%). A reduction in Glycated Hemoglobinwas observed from 5.8% ± 0.5 in the preoperative period to5.1% ± 0.2 at 12 months (p = <0.001), and a reduction inTotal Cholesterol from 199.0mg/dL to 167.0mg/dL (p =<0.001) before and 12 months after gastroplasty, respecti-vely. In addition to these, we observed a statistically signifi-cant improvement in all anthropometric and biochemical va-riables analyzed, except fasting blood glucose. Discussion: These results can be explained based onchanges in the secretion of intestinal hormones, which helpwith better glucose, lipid and blood pressure control, in addi-tion to weight loss...(AU)

The combined effect of social pensions and cash transfers on child mortality: evaluating the last two decades in Brazil and projecting their mitigating effect during the global economic crisis.

Background: The world is currently experiencing multiple economic crises due to the COVID-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine, and inflation surge, which disproportionately affect children, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We evaluated if the expansion of Social Assistance, represented by Social Pensions (SP) and Conditional Cash Transfers (CCT), could reduce infant and child mortality, and mitigate excess deaths among children in Brazil, one of the LMICs most affected by these economic crises. Methods: We conducted a retrospective impact evaluation in a cohort of Brazilian municipalities from 2004 to 2019 using multivariable fixed-effects negative binomial models, adjusted for relevant demographic, social, and economic factors, to estimate the effects of the SP and CCT on infant and child mortality. To verify the robustness of the results, we conducted several sensitivity and triangulation analyses, including difference-in-difference with propensity-score matching. These results were incorporated into dynamic microsimulation models to generate projections to 2030 of various economic crises and Social Assistance scenarios. Findings: Consolidated coverage of SP was associated with significant reductions in infant and child mortality rates, with a rate ratio (RR) of 0.843 (95% CI: 0.826-0.861) and 0.840 (95% CI: 0.824-0.856), respectively. Similarly, CCT consolidated coverages showed RRs of 0.868 (95% CI: 0.842-0.849) and 0.874 (95% CI: 0.850-0.899) for infant and child mortality, respectively. The higher the degree of poverty in the municipalities, the stronger the impact of CCT on reducing child mortality. Given the current economic crisis, a mitigation strategy that will increase the coverage of SP and CCT could avert 148,736 (95% CI: 127,148-170,706) child deaths up to 2030, compared with fiscal austerity measures. Interpretation: SP and CCT programs could strongly reduce child mortality in LMICs, and their expansion should be considered as an effective strategy to mitigate the impact of the current multiple global economic crises. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Grant_Number:INV-027961. Medical Research Council(MRC-UKRI),Grant_Number:MC_PC_MR/T023678/1.

Understanding the social determinants of child mortality in Latin America over the last two decades: a machine learning approach.

The reduction of child mortality rates remains a significant global public health challenge, particularly in regions with high levels of inequality such as Latin America. We used machine learning (ML) algorithms to explore the relationship between social determinants and child under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) in Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico over two decades. We created a municipal-level cohort from 2000 to 2019 and trained a random forest model (RF) to estimate the relative importance of social determinants in predicting U5MR. We conducted a sensitivity analysis training two more ML models and presenting the mean square error, root mean square error, and median absolute deviation. Our findings indicate that poverty, illiteracy, and the Gini index were the most important variables for predicting U5MR according to the RF. Furthermore, non-linear relationships were found mainly for Gini index and U5MR. Our study suggests that long-term public policies to reduce U5MR in Latin America should focus on reducing poverty, illiteracy, and socioeconomic inequalities. This research provides important insights into the relationships between social determinants and child mortality rates in Latin America. The use of ML algorithms, combined with large longitudinal data, allowed us to evaluate the effects of social determinants on health more carefully than traditional models.

Evaluation and Forecasting Analysis of the Association of Conditional Cash Transfer With Child Mortality in Latin America, 2000-2030.

Importance: Latin America has implemented the world's largest and most consolidated conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs during the last 2 decades. As a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic, poverty rates have markedly increased, and a large number of newly low-income individuals, especially children, have been left unprotected. Objective: To evaluate the association of CCT programs with child health in Latin American countries during the last 2 decades and forecast child mortality trends up to 2030 according to CCT alternative implementation options. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used a multicountry, longitudinal, ecological design with multivariable negative binomial regression models, which were adjusted for all relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and health care variables, integrating the retrospective impact evaluations from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2019, with dynamic microsimulation models to forecast potential child mortality scenarios up to 2030. The study cohort included 4882 municipalities from Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico with adequate quality of civil registration and vital statistics according to a validated multidimensional criterion. Data analysis was performed from September 2022 to February 2023. Exposure: Conditional cash transfer coverage of the target (lowest-income) population categorized into 4 levels: low (0%-29.9%), intermediate (30.0%-69.9%), high (70.0%-99.9%), and consolidated (≥100%). Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were mortality rates for those younger than 5 years and hospitalization rates (per 1000 live births), overall and by poverty-related causes (diarrheal, malnutrition, tuberculosis, malaria, lower respiratory tract infections, and HIV/AIDS), and the mortality rates for those younger than 5 years by age groups, namely, neonatal (0-28 days), postneonatal (28 days to 1 year), infant (<1 year), and toddler (1-4 years). Results: The retrospective analysis included 4882 municipalities. During the study period of January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2019, mortality in Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico decreased by 7.8% in children and 6.5% in infants, and an increase in coverage of CCT programs of 76.8% was observed in these Latin American countries. Conditional cash transfer programs were associated with significant reductions of mortality rates in those younger than 5 years (rate ratio [RR], 0.76; 95% CI, 0.75-0.76), having prevented 738 919 (95% CI, 695 641-782 104) child deaths during this period. The association of highest coverage of CCT programs was stronger with poverty-related diseases, such as malnutrition (RR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.31-0.35), diarrhea (RR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.40-0.43), lower respiratory tract infections (RR, 0.66, 95% CI, 0.65-0.68), malaria (RR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.63-0.93), tuberculosis (RR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.48-0.79), and HIV/AIDS (RR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.28-0.37). Several sensitivity and triangulation analyses confirmed the robustness of the results. Considering a scenario of moderate economic crisis, a mitigation strategy that will increase the coverage of CCTs to protect those newly in poverty could reduce the mortality rate for those younger than 5 years by up to 17% (RR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.80-0.85) and prevent 153 601 (95% CI, 127 441-180 600) child deaths by 2030 in Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico. Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this cohort study suggest that the expansion of CCT programs could strongly reduce childhood hospitalization and mortality in Latin America and should be considered an effective strategy to mitigate the health impact of the current global economic crisis in low- and middle-income countries.

Neurofibroma plexiforme cecal em paciente com neurofibromatose tipo 1 / Cecal plexiform neurofibroma in a patient with neurofibromatosis type 1

A Neurofibromatose Tipo I (NF-1) ou doença de Von Recklinghausen é uma doença genética autossômica dominante com uma incidência de 1 em 2600-3000 indivíduos. As características mais típicas são as manchas café com leite e os neurofibromas da pele. Outros sistemas também podem ser afetados, incluindo o aparelho cardiovascular, olhos, ossos e o trato gastrointestinal. O envolvimento gastrointestinal tem sido documentado em 25% dos pacientes com NF-1, principalmente o estômago e o intestino delgado. O envolvimento do esôfago e do cólon é raro. Nosso objetivo é relatar um caso raro de neurofibroma plexiforme do cólon, em paciente com NF-1 até então não diagnosticada.

The Neurofibromatosis type I (NF-1) or Von Recklinghausens disease is an autosomal dominant disorder with an incidence of 1 in 2600-3000 individuals. The most characteristic features are the stains coffee with milk and skin neurofibromas. Other systems may also be affected, including the cardiovascular system, eyes, bone and gastrointestinal tract. The gastrointestinal involvement has been documented in 25% of patients with NF-1, primarily the stomach and small intestine. The involvement of the esophagus and the colon is rare. Our goal is to report a rare case of plexiform neurofibroma of the colon in a patient with NF-1 hitherto undiagnosed.

Colecistite alitiásica aguda: manifestação inicial de uma doença autoimune? / Acute cholecystitis alitiasica: initial manifestation of na autoimune disease?

A Colecistite Alitiásica Aguda (CAA) é uma inflamação da vesícula biliar na ausência de colelitíase. É uma forma pouco frequente de colecistite, representando cerca de 10% de todos os casos, sendo tradicionalmente descrita em pacientes graves, submetidos a grandes procedimentos cirúrgicos, queimados, sépticos, politraumatizados ou em nutrição parenteral total por tempo prolongado. Existem relatos na literatura da sua associação também com o diabetes mellitus, insuficiência cardíaca, síndrome da imunodeficiência adquirida, dentre outras patologias. Doenças autoimunes como poliarterite nodosa e Lúpus Eritematoso Sistêmico (LES) também podem se manifestar através da CAA, causada por uma lesão isquêmica na vesícula biliar. Nosso objetivo é relatar um caso clínico de Colecistite Alitiásica Aguda numa paciente sem fator de risco que, durante a evolução, apresenta quadro de rash cutâneo facial, com Fator Antinuclear (FAN) positivo, porém sem critérios diagnósticos para LES segundo os protocolos e que, após início da corticoterapia, apresentou remissão total dos sintomas.

The Acute Cholecystitis Alitiasica (CAA) is an inflammation gallbladder in the absence of cholelithiasis. It is a Uncommonly of cholecystitis, representing about 10% of all cases, traditionally described in critically ill patients undergoing to major surgical procedures, burns, sepsis, multiple trauma or parenteral nutrition total time for prolongado. There are reports in literature also its association with diabetes mellitus, heart failure, immunodeficiency syndrome acquired, among other patologias. Diseases as autoimmune lupus erythematosus and polyarteritis nodosa (SLE) may also manifest by CAA, caused by an ischemic lesion in gall biliar. Our goal is to report a case Acute cholecystitis in a patient without Alitiásica factor risk that during evolution, presents frame facial rash with antinuclear antibodies (ANA) antibody positive, but no diagnostic criteria for SLE according to protocols and that after the start of steroid therapy, showed total remission of symptoms.

Curso de atualização em emergências médicas: aula 20: colangite aguda: diagnóstico e terapêutica / Updating medical emergencies course: class 20: acute cholangitis: diagnostic and therapeutic

A colangite aguda corresponde à infecção ascendente das vias biliares e geralmente está relacionada com as bactérias entéricas - gram-negativas, anaeróbios e enterococos. O fator patogênico mais importante é o obstrutivo, pois a presença de bactérias na bile não é suficiente para causar infecção das vias biliares se não estiver presente o componente obstrutivo. Dentre eles, a coledocolitíase é o principal elemento em cerca de 70% a 80% dos casos. Clinicamente, a tríade clássica - febre com calafrios, dor do hipocêndrio direito e icterícia - descrita por Charcot em 1877 manifesta-se em cerca de 70% a 80% dos pacientes. A ultrassonografia abdominal (e mais raramente a colangiopancreatografia por ressonância magnética) deve ser o método de escolha, por ser hábil em detectar dilatação da via biliar acima do local da obstrução e também por poder revelar sua causa. A terapêutica da colangite bacteriana aguda deve alicerçar-se na ressuscitação volêmica, antibioticoterapia e desobstrução da via biliar com consequente drenagem, sendo esta última a pedra angular da terapia emergencial da colangite aguda, que pode ser feita por via endoscópica (CPRE) ou transparietal (PTC).

Acute cholangitis corresponds to the ascending infection of the biliary tract and is usually associated with enteric bacteria - gram-negative, anaerobes and enterococci. The most important pathogenic factor is the obstruction because the presence of bacteria in bile is not sufficient to cause infection of the biliary tract in the absence of one obstructive component. Among these, choledocholithiasis is the main element in about 70% to 80% of cases. Clinically, the classic triad - fever with chills, pain in the right hypochondrium and jaundice - described by Charcot in 1877, manifests itself in about 70% to 80% of patients. The abdominal ultrasound (and, less frequently, magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography) should be the method of choice because it is able to detect bile duct dilation above the site of the obstruction and also to reveal its cause. The treatment of acute bacterial cholangitis must be based on fluid resuscitation, antibiotics and clearing of the bile duct with subsequent drainage, the latter being the cornerstone of emergency therapy of acute cholangitis, which can be performed endoscopically (ERCP) or transparietal (PTC).